Neither surrender nor triumph, trade pacts mark India’s growth as negotiator

Indian Express

Context and Central Thesis

The article assesses India’s recent trade agreements not as headline victories or ideological retreats, but as evidence of maturing negotiating capacity. It argues that India has moved beyond binary frames of protectionism versus liberalisation, adopting a calibrated, interest-based trade strategy shaped by geopolitical pressure, supply-chain shifts, and domestic economic priorities.

Key Arguments Presented

Trade agreements as negotiated balance, not ideological choice
The article stresses that India’s recent pacts reflect neither capitulation to external pressure nor nationalist defiance. Instead, they demonstrate bargaining that weighs market access against policy autonomy.

From rule-taker to rule-shaper tendencies
India is portrayed as gradually shifting from passive acceptance of global trade norms to selective engagement, shaping outcomes in line with domestic capabilities and vulnerabilities.

Geopolitics increasingly frames trade outcomes
Trade negotiations are no longer purely economic. Strategic considerations—China’s rise, supply-chain resilience, sanctions regimes, and great-power competition—heavily influence India’s bargaining space.

Learning from past over-corrections
The article implicitly contrasts current deals with earlier phases—excessive inward-looking protection and overly ambitious liberalisation—suggesting institutional learning over time.

Negotiation strength lies in sequencing and restraint
India’s refusal to rush into comprehensive FTAs is framed as strategic patience, allowing leverage to build through incremental agreements and sectoral readiness.

Author’s Stance

The author adopts a measured and approving stance, portraying India as a confident but cautious negotiator. The tone avoids triumphalism and rejects claims of policy surrender, arguing instead that India’s trade diplomacy reflects pragmatic realism.

Biases and Perspective

Strategic-autonomy bias
The article prioritises policy space and national interest over theoretical free-trade efficiency.

Institutional optimism
There is an assumption that India’s negotiating institutions have matured sufficiently, with limited scrutiny of implementation gaps.

Understated distributional concerns
The impact of trade pacts on small producers, labour, and MSMEs receives less attention compared to diplomatic and strategic framing.

Pros and Cons Highlighted

Pros

• Demonstrates improved negotiating capability
• Preserves policy autonomy while expanding market access
• Aligns trade with geopolitical realities
• Reduces risk of asymmetric commitments

Cons

• Limited immediate export surge
• Slow integration into global value chains
• Adjustment pressures for certain sectors remain unresolved
• Gains depend heavily on domestic reforms

Policy Implications

Trade strategy
India is likely to continue with modular, issue-specific agreements rather than sweeping FTAs.

Industrial policy alignment
Negotiations must be backed by competitiveness, logistics reform, and skilling to translate access into outcomes.

Diplomatic leverage
Trade is now a core instrument of foreign policy, requiring coherence across ministries.

Domestic consensus-building
Sustainable trade policy needs better communication with states, industry, and labour groups.

Real-World Impact

• Exporters gain predictability but not guaranteed expansion
• Domestic industry benefits from policy protection during transition
• Government strengthens credibility as a negotiating state
• Economy experiences gradual, not disruptive, integration

UPSC GS Paper Alignment

GS Paper II (International Relations)

• Economic diplomacy
• Strategic autonomy in foreign policy

GS Paper III (Indian Economy)

• External sector and trade policy
• Global value chains and industrial competitiveness

Essay Paper

• “Strategic autonomy in a multipolar trading system”
• “Negotiation as an instrument of national power”

Balanced Conclusion and Future Perspective

The article convincingly argues that India’s recent trade pacts signify institutional maturity rather than ideological victory or defeat. Negotiation, not symbolism, is the story. India appears increasingly comfortable with complexity—accepting limited gains today to preserve leverage tomorrow.

The challenge ahead is execution. Negotiating skill must now be matched by domestic reform, competitiveness, and consensus-building. If that alignment holds, India’s evolution from defensive participant to strategic negotiator could become a durable feature of its global economic engagement.