UN: Global emissions at new peak, India logs steepest rise

Times Of India

1. Introduction and Context

This article by Vishwa Mohan dissects a United Nations Emissions Gap Report (2024) revealing that global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions rose by 2.3%, reaching a record 57.7 gigatons of CO₂ equivalent.

Among major economies, India recorded the steepest rise (3.6%), followed by Indonesia (4.6%), China (0.5%), Russia, and the United States.

Despite repeated commitments under the Paris Agreement (2015), the report warns that the world remains on course for a 2.3–2.5°C temperature rise by 2100, far exceeding the safe 1.5°C threshold.

The article uses this report to frame a larger concern: the disparity between climate pledges and actual progress, especially in fast-growing economies like India that are balancing growth with sustainability.

2. Key Arguments and Core Discussion

a. Global Emissions Rising Despite Commitments

• Global GHG emissions are now at an all-time high, despite a decade of climate pledges.
• The UN Emissions Gap Report shows current policies and NDCs (Nationally Determined Contributions) are insufficient to limit warming.
• While earlier projections indicated a 3.5°C rise, recent actions have only lowered the trajectory to 2.3°C–2.5°C, still far above the Paris target.

b. India’s Paradox — Growth vs. Green Responsibility

• India’s per capita emissions remain well below the global average but its absolute emissions rose fastest in 2024.
• This reflects India’s development paradox — economic expansion powered by coal, steel, and manufacturing still heavily reliant on fossil fuels.
• The challenge lies in ensuring that growth does not derail decarbonization.

c. Disparities Among Major Emitters

• Developed nations (US, Russia, EU) continue to record much higher per capita emissions (6.4 tons CO₂e).
• In contrast, developing nations like India and Indonesia show lower per capita footprints but a sharper growth curve.
• The EU is the only major bloc showing an actual decline in GHG emissions in 2024.

d. Weak National Pledges and Policy Lag

• The UN warns that current pledges do not meet the Paris goals — deeper cuts of 35–85% by 2035 are needed.
• Although temperature projections have improved slightly since 2015, policy inertia and weak enforcement persist.
• The upcoming COP-30 in Belem (Brazil) is seen as a critical juncture for revising global climate commitments.

3. Author’s Stance

The author’s stance is data-driven, analytical, and cautionary.
He highlights both global and Indian contexts, maintaining neutrality but expressing concern over the inadequacy of climate action.

While acknowledging India’s efforts in renewable energy and green missions, he warns that rapid emissions growth may undermine India’s global climate credibility if not balanced through industrial decarbonization and clean energy expansion.

The tone is informative yet cautionary, advocating stronger national accountability and global cooperation.

4. Possible Biases

Despite these, the article’s bias leans toward constructive climate urgency, emphasizing the moral and practical need for emission cuts.

5. Pros and Cons

 Pros

• Accurate & Up-to-date Data: Relies on credible UN datasets and scientific projections.
• Global Contextualization: Places India’s growth within global emission trends.
• Highlights Urgency: Reiterates that current pledges fall short of Paris Agreement goals.
• Scientific Clarity: Simplifies climate science for policy readers and aspirants.

 Cons

• Limited Depth on Climate Justice: Overlooks “common but differentiated responsibilities.”
• Underrepresentation of India’s Green Progress: Misses clean energy and EV policy details.
• Neglects Adaptation Finance: Focuses mainly on mitigation, not adaptation or resilience.
• Technocratic Framing: Lacks social and behavioral perspectives on emission control.

6. Policy Implications

a. For India

• Integrate Climate and Economic Planning: Climate budgeting at both state and district levels.
• Industrial Decarbonization: Introduce incentives for green hydrogen, carbon capture, and energy-efficient steel/cement production.
• Transition Funding: Protect coal-dependent workers and states under Just Energy Transition (JETP) models.

b. For Global Governance

• Revising NDCs: Strengthen pledges and ensure measurable accountability before 2030.
• Finance and Equity: Developed nations must honor the $100 billion climate finance commitment and support South-South cooperation.
• Carbon Market Integrity: Transparent, verifiable carbon trading under Article 6 of the Paris Agreement.

c. For Economic Policy

• Promote green bonds, ESG-linked finance, and carbon pricing.
• Encourage MSMEs to adopt low-carbon technologies through tax incentives and subsidies.
• Link emission reduction to FDI eligibility and trade advantages.

7. Real-World Impact

 Global Impact:

• The rise in emissions brings the world dangerously close to tipping points — Arctic melt, coral bleaching, and crop yield collapses.
• 2.5°C warming would mean irreversible ecosystem loss and widespread climate displacement.

🇮🇳 India-Specific Impact:

• India’s surge could invite diplomatic scrutiny in COP-30 negotiations.
• The challenge: advancing economic growth while avoiding “carbon lock-in.”
• Urgent need for renewable expansion, behavioral change, and urban emission control.

 Socio-Economic Impact:

• Highlights India’s central dilemma: reconciling development aspirations with environmental limits.
• The outcome will determine whether India can become a model of sustainable industrialization for the Global South.

8. UPSC Relevance

9. Conclusion

The UN report delivers a stark warning — global emissions are still rising when they should be falling rapidly.
Despite progress in renewable adoption, the world’s collective climate response remains grossly inadequate.

For India, the rise in emissions is both a reality check and an opportunity — to demonstrate that rapid economic growth can coexist with climate responsibility.

The closing decade before 2035 will determine whether nations can prevent a runaway 2.5°C world or resign themselves to irreversible climate breakdown.

10. Future Perspectives

1. Develop a Climate Equity Index: Reflect both per capita and historical emissions for fair accountability.
2. Accelerate Green Industrial Policy: Boost investments in EVs, green steel, and hydrogen infrastructure.
3. Expand Carbon Markets: Enable Panchayats, MSMEs, and cooperatives to earn verified carbon credits.
4. Strengthen South–South Cooperation: India and Indonesia can co-lead climate-smart industrial alliances.
5. Adopt Real-Time Emission Tracking: Use satellite-based GHG mapping and AI dashboards for transparency.